I sit here, wiping the blood from my eyes, trying to fight off flashbacks to the 2004 election, wondering just how things went so wildly wrong.

Of the 24 Academy Awards categories, I successfully predicted 18 winners, which puts me at an even 75% accuracy. At the start of the show, I had guessed I would hit 20 of 24, since I didn't expect to sweep, but I did think I had made reasonably smart decisions. Ang Lee was a lock for best director, in a year that saw all five best picture and director nominees match up for the first time since 1981. Likewise, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Reese Witherspoon, George Clooney, and Rachel Weisz all seemed like the strongest contenders in their categories, and I was right.

And then Crash had to come along and ruin my entire day.

For those who haven't seen it, or for those who have seen it and are simply a little slow, Crash is a cheesy, ham-fisted melodrama that makes Peter Jackson look like Wim Wenders. It's bloated, predictable, filled with flat characters, and unpleasant to watch. It's a tale about racism that never stops reminding you in bright colors and monosyllabic words and arbitrary plot points that you are watching a movie about racism, and it's your duty to be moved by the film. If not, you don't understand it. It's a movie for people who don't understand enough about movies to pick a good one from a fake one; it's the cinematic equivalent of Ayn Rand, a film for posers and wannabes and that guy in your philosophy class who thinks he's on the ball but pronounces the first "s" in "Descartes."

I'm literally at a loss. I'm monumentally disappointed that Crash won over the powerful Capote, the amazing Good Night, and Good Luck, the thought-provoking Munich, and above all, the phenomenal Brokeback Mountain. In a year when the new version of independent film (small budgets, big names) seemed to be everywhere, Brokeback balanced an emotional story, a solid cast and crew, a well-written script, and an eye to the cultural zeitgeist to become something bigger than the sum of its parts. It's more than a film; it's an idea about where film is heading.

But, like I said, Paul Haggis pretty much screwed that up.

There were some nice surprises in the evening, including the best song win for Hustle & Flow, and there were some bad surprises, like Brokeback losing the cinematography award to Memoirs of a Geisha, a truly insipid period piece that was luck to win for costume design and art direction. And, of course, Jon Stewart was a great host.

But man, this stings. This hurts. I'm reminded of Titanic winning best picture over L.A. Confidential, As Good As It Gets, and Good Will Hunting. Except that was a bad romance beating out legitimate human dramas, and tonight's awards feel like we're taking a cultural step backward. Other films were better, but the Crash DVD is going to have the best picture sticker on the box at Wal-Mart, and that hurts.

Anyway.

Below is my list of predictions and the actual winners. Overall, I'd say I did pretty well, and except for the best picture heartbreaker, I'm pretty happy with the results. The Sis made predictions in 22 of the 24 categories, and most of our picks were the same. (She excluded animated short film and live-action short film.) I got 17 of those 22 correct, and she went 15 for 22. Sis, I accept cash or check.

Best Picture
Prediction: Brokeback Mountain.
Winner: Crash.

Best Actor
Prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote.
Winner: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote.

Best Actress
Prediction: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line.
Winner: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line.

Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: George Clooney, Syriana.
Winner: George Clooney, Syriana.

Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener.
Winner: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener.

Best Director
Prediction: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain.
Winner: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain.

Best Original Screenplay
Prediction: Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco, Crash.
Winner: Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco, Crash.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain.
Winner: Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain.

Best Cinematography
Prediction: Rodrigo Prieto, Brokeback Mountain.
Winner: Dion Beebe, Memoirs of a Geisha.

Best Film Editing
Prediction: Hughes Winborne, Crash.
Winner: Hughes Winborne, Crash.

Best Art Direction
Prediction: John Myhre, Gretchen Rau, Memoirs of a Geisha.
Winner: John Myhre, Gretchen Rau, Memoirs of a Geisha.

Best Costume Design
Prediction: Colleen Atwood, Memoirs of a Geisha.
Winner: Colleen Atwood, Memoirs of a Geisha.

Best Original Score
Prediction: Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain.
Winner: Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain.

Best Original Song
Prediction: Michael Becker, Kathleen York, "In the Deep," Crash.
Winner: Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman, Paul Beauregard, "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp," Hustle & Flow.

Best Makeup
Prediction: Howard Berger, Tami Lane, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.
Winner: Howard Berger, Tami Lane, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.

Best Sound Mixing
Prediction: Paul Massey, Doug Hemphill, Peter F. Kurland, Walk the Line.
Winner: Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges, Hammond Peek, King Kong.

Best Sound Editing
Prediction: Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn, King Kong.
Winner: Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn, King Kong.

Best Visual Effects
Prediction: Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers, Richard Taylor, King Kong.
Winner: Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers, Richard Taylor, King Kong.

Best Animated Feature
Prediction: Steve Box, Nick Park, Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit.
Winner: Steve Box, Nick Park, Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit.

Best Foreign Language Film
Prediction: Gavin Hood, Tsotsi (South Africa).
Winner: Gavin Hood, Tsotsi (South Africa).

Best Documentary (Feature)
Prediction: Luc Jacquet, Yves Darondeau, March of the Penguins.
Winner: Luc Jacquet, Yves Darondeau, March of the Penguins.

Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Prediction: Kimberlee Acquaro, Stacy Sherman, God Sleeps in Rwanda.
Winner: Corinne Marrinan, Eric Simonson, A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin.

Best Short Film (Animated)
Prediction: Mark Andrews, Andrew Jiminez, One Man Band.
Winner: John Canemaker, Peggy Stern, The Moon and the Son.

Best Short Film (Live Action)
Prediction: Martin McDonagh, Six Shooter.
Winner: Martin McDonagh, Six Shooter.

So there you go. Really, I'm almost too depressed to think about it. I'm going to go home and watch some TV on DVD and sleep in and try to move on. I expect that many of you might be pleased with Crash's victory, and to you I can only say: One day you'll know better.

I hope.