I sit here, wiping the blood from my eyes, trying to fight off flashbacks to the 2004 election, wondering just how things went so wildly wrong.

Of the 24 Academy Awards categories, I successfully predicted 18 winners, which puts me at an even 75% accuracy. At the start of the show, I had guessed I would hit 20 of 24, since I didn't expect to sweep, but I did think I had made reasonably smart decisions. Ang Lee was a lock for best director, in a year that saw all five best picture and director nominees match up for the first time since 1981. Likewise, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Reese Witherspoon, George Clooney, and Rachel Weisz all seemed like the strongest contenders in their categories, and I was right.

And then Crash had to come along and ruin my entire day.

For those who haven't seen it, or for those who have seen it and are simply a little slow, Crash is a cheesy, ham-fisted melodrama that makes Peter Jackson look like Wim Wenders. It's bloated, predictable, filled with flat characters, and unpleasant to watch. It's a tale about racism that never stops reminding you in bright colors and monosyllabic words and arbitrary plot points that you are watching a movie about racism, and it's your duty to be moved by the film. If not, you don't understand it. It's a movie for people who don't understand enough about movies to pick a good one from a fake one; it's the cinematic equivalent of Ayn Rand, a film for posers and wannabes and that guy in your philosophy class who thinks he's on the ball but pronounces the first "s" in "Descartes."

I'm literally at a loss. I'm monumentally disappointed that Crash won over the powerful Capote, the amazing Good Night, and Good Luck, the thought-provoking Munich, and above all, the phenomenal Brokeback Mountain. In a year when the new version of independent film (small budgets, big names) seemed to be everywhere, Brokeback balanced an emotional story, a solid cast and crew, a well-written script, and an eye to the cultural zeitgeist to become something bigger than the sum of its parts. It's more than a film; it's an idea about where film is heading.

But, like I said, Paul Haggis pretty much screwed that up.

There were some nice surprises in the evening, including the best song win for Hustle & Flow, and there were some bad surprises, like Brokeback losing the cinematography award to Memoirs of a Geisha, a truly insipid period piece that was luck to win for costume design and art direction. And, of course, Jon Stewart was a great host.

But man, this stings. This hurts. I'm reminded of Titanic winning best picture over L.A. Confidential, As Good As It Gets, and Good Will Hunting. Except that was a bad romance beating out legitimate human dramas, and tonight's awards feel like we're taking a cultural step backward. Other films were better, but the Crash DVD is going to have the best picture sticker on the box at Wal-Mart, and that hurts.

Anyway.

Below is my list of predictions and the actual winners. Overall, I'd say I did pretty well, and except for the best picture heartbreaker, I'm pretty happy with the results. The Sis made predictions in 22 of the 24 categories, and most of our picks were the same. (She excluded animated short film and live-action short film.) I got 17 of those 22 correct, and she went 15 for 22. Sis, I accept cash or check.

Best Picture
Prediction: Brokeback Mountain.
Winner: Crash.   more »