I hadn't planned on participating in one of these things this year, but I'm playing in the office pool, so I might as well do this here, too. I'm actually competing with The Sis when it comes to the predictions; winner gets bragging rights. (Next year, when she's gainfully employed, we're playing for real money. Like maybe as much as $20. You heard me.) I also realize that by even writing this list, I'm being a bit of a hypocrite, since I wrote that while good movies are better than bad ones, it's almost impossible to pick which good movie is "better" than the others. I stand by that, too. But the nature of the show is to try and predict the winners, and who am I to argue?

Also, I don't plan on listing every nominee in every category. Just go here if you want the full list.

Best Picture
Prediction: Brokeback Mountain. A solid leader. If Crash comes from behind and wins, it will be a sure sign that most people in the industry are committed to creating good works of art but heaping praise on absolute crap.
Preference: Brokeback Mountain. I started anticipating this movie when I saw the trailers last summer. Something about that shot of Heath Ledger in front of the fireworks, plus the music, plus the talent. My only consolation in the ongoing wave of Brokeback humor and hype is that Sideways got a lot of hype last year, too, though admittedly not nearly as much, but now that things have calmed down and most people have forgotten it, it's still a good movie. I hope this is what happens with Brokeback. I'm eager for Fox News pundits and Final Cut wizards to move on and let me have the movie back.

Best Actor
Prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote.
Preference: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote. This is a hard choice, since he's up against Joaquin Phoenix, Heath Ledger, Terrence Howard, and David Strathairn. There hasn't been an actors' race this packed with talented performances since the supporting actor category in 1999. Still, I have to give the slight edge to Hoffman.

Best Actress
Prediction: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line. She did an amazing job, and she sounded just like June Carter.
Preference: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line.

Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: George Clooney, Syriana. However, Matt Dillon could come form behind with his stilted, two-dimensional cop from Crash.
Preference: George Clooney, Syriana. A smart movie that seemed to get overlooked. Clooney earned it.

Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener. But if Brokeback does even better than expected, Michelle Williams could take it.
Preference: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener. Another great film that seems to have been lost in the shuffle, maybe because of the title.

Best Director
Prediction: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain. Has to be.
Preference: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain. Seriously, has to be.

Best Original Screenplay
Prediction: Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco, Crash. Sad, but almost inevitable. It shouldn't take any top prizes, but this one's almost certain.
Preference: Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale. It'd be nice to see Baumbach get the recognition he deserves.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain.
Preference: Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain.

Best Cinematography
Prediction: Rodrigo Prieto, Brokeback Mountain. Who knew Canada looked so good?
Preference: Rodrigo Prieto, Brokeback Mountain

Best Film Editing
Prediction: Hughes Winborne, Crash. Looks good on a resume.
Preference: Claire Simpson, The Constant Gardener. The editing was a crucial storytelling element here, and turned a spy thriller into a sad, retroactive love story.

Best Art Direction
Prediction: John Myhre, Gretchen Rau, Memoirs of a Geisha. This was a pretty crappy movie, and this is one of the only awards it can win.
Preference: James D. Bissell, Jan Pascale, Good Night, and Good Luck. The lack of exteriors, and the period-era sets, made the film feel genuine.

Best Costume Design
Prediction: Colleen Atwood, Memoirs of a Geisha. Again, one of the only categories Geisha can take.
Preference: Arianne Phillips, Walk the Line. The '60s clothes were accurate but not distracting. Plus, anything's better than Geisha.

Best Original Score
Prediction: Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain.
Preference: Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain. An amazing score.

Best Original Song
Prediction: Michael Becker, Kathleen York, "In the Deep," Crash. Likely.
Preference: Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman, Paul Beauregard, "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp," Hustle & Flow. I'd love this to win. Rap songs can take the category, like Eminem did with 8 Mile's "Lose Yourself." And Hustle & Flow is an infinitely better film than Crash.

Best Makeup
Prediction: Howard Berger, Tami Lane, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.
Preference: Howard Berger, Tami Lane, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe. Yeah, why not.

Best Sound Mixing
Prediction: Paul Massey, Doug Hemphill, Peter F. Kurland, Walk the Line.
Preference: Paul Massey, Doug Hemphill, Peter F. Kurland, Walk the Line. The sound and music were phenomenal. Granted, it's hard to make Johnny Cash music unlistenable, but the audio here was amazing.

Best Sound Editing
Prediction: Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn, King Kong.
Preference: Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn, King Kong. Sure. Who cares.

Best Visual Effects
Prediction: Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers, Richard Taylor, King Kong.
Preference: Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers, Richard Taylor, King Kong. Better than Narnia, and more involved than War of the Worlds.

Best Animated Feature
Prediction: Steve Box, Nick Park, Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit.
Preference: Steve Box, Nick Park, Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit. Funny, smart, a technical feat.

Best Foreign Language Film
Prediction: Gavin Hood, Tsotsi (South Africa). Although Palestine Now could take it, if the Academy resolves to completely alienate Wal-Mart shoppers, which might not be a bad move.
Preference: Gavin Hood, Tsotsi (South Africa).

Best Documentary (Feature)
Prediction: Luc Jacquet, Yves Darondeau, March of the Penguins. Probably inevitable, because people are stupid and like trends.
Preference: Henry Alex Rubin, Dana Adam Shapiro, Murderball. Such an amazing story. It's on A&E now, but it's really worth the rental or purchase.

(We now leave the area where I pretend to be knowledgable and enter the realm where I freely admit I know nothing.)

Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Prediction: Kimberlee Acquaro, Stacy Sherman, God Sleeps in Rwanda. Anything with "Rwanda" in the title has a good shot.
Preference: Kimberlee Acquaro, Stacy Sherman, God Sleeps in Rwanda.

Best Short Film (Animated)
Prediction: Mark Andrews, Andrew Jiminez, One Man Band. When in doubt, vote for Pixar.
Preference: Mark Andrews, Andrew Jiminez, One Man Band.

Best Short Film (Live Action)
Prediction: Martin McDonagh, Six Shooter. Um, I like the title.
Preference: Martin McDonagh, Six Shooter.

That's about it. If my predictions turn out to be wrong, I fully intend to eat my words and admit my mistakes. However, anyone that supports a Crash victory should refrain from mocking my losses, as I do not consider your opinions valid. Thanks.